44th and 50th anniversaries!

Limits abound, and are you taking them seriously?

On my 44th birthday, my wish is for my subscribers to read this article, and take seriously the implications! I'm hopeful my presence on Facebook has contributed to a few people more seriously considering what's really going on, and appropriate strategies for their families and communities.

The far more important anniversary that we should be focused on is the now 50 years old "Limits to Growth" analysis https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022-02-24/the-limits-to-growth-at-50-from-scenarios-to-unfolding-reality/ .

This remarkably prescient book remains the best selling environmental book of all time, yet it's messages and implications are rarely talked about in the mainstream. I'm particularly keen that people understand the hard limits energy resource constraints put on society.

It's very probable that Russian sanctions and export bans will bring this issue to the forefront of people's minds in 2022. I'm hoping it's a teachable moment, and we get A LOT more serious about local food production and food system resilience as a result.

Here's the exerpt on Energy from the article I linked to above:

"Energy. The authors of The Limits to Growth did not attempt to forecast when or if the world’s energy supply would peak. However, they did discuss the central role of energy in industrial production, the unsustainability of our societal reliance on fossil fuels, and the limits of the alternative energy source most frequently discussed in 1972—nuclear power. At the time of the book’s publication, world energy production was growing rapidly: from 1960 to 1972, it expanded at 5.4 percent per year on average. Since 1973, that growth rate has slowed, averaging only 2 percent during the past half-century. This is partly a result of waning demand, due to the fact that the pace of world economic growth has likewise diminished (see below), but it’s also important to understand that, as fossil fuels (representing about 85 percent of total energy) deplete, more effort is required to identify and extract remaining coal, oil, and gas resources. Since cheap energy is a key factor enabling economic growth, it is difficult to tell which trend is in the driver’s seat—whether slowing economic growth is reducing energy demand, or harder-to-get energy is causing growth to slow.

So far, alternative energy sources are not being deployed at rates that exceed overall energy usage growth, and the world continues to be overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels. Burning these fuels at growing rates results in increasing levels of greenhouse gas pollution, even though some mitigation efforts have been undertaken (see the section on “pollution” below). As fossil fuels continue to deplete, and as governments and investors sour on coal, oil, and gas due to their carbon emissions and climate impacts, “peak energy” is a realistic prospect sometime during the next 20 years, possibly even this decade. Due to the crucial role of energy in society, its peak in production would probably mark the end of economic growth as we have known it throughout recent decades."

And the conclusion to that article:

"What to Do—Then and Now

The authors of The Limits to Growth tried to model the results of various government policies that would affect the interacting parameters of World3 (population growth, resource depletion, pollution, and industrial output). The policies that were found to shift trends away from peaks and declines, at least for the current century, were these:

Stabilizing population by setting the birth rate equal to the death rate in 1975, with an average desired family size of two children. The book contained little discussion of population growth reduction methods, aside from full access to contraceptives.

Implementing radical efficiency in resource usage, so that resource consumption per unit of industrial output is reduced to one-fourth the 1970 value. This could be achieved by recycling as much material as is physically possible.

Shifting from encouraging consumption to fostering human development. Instead of maximizing manufacturing and sales of products, focus economic and priorities and policies on education, health care, and cultural activities.

Reducing pollution per unit of industrial and agricultural output. This requires identifying and adopting less-polluting technologies, methods, and materials.

Diverting capital to making food affordable for everyone. The authors anticipated that the above conditions would result in changes to the food system that might increase levels of malnourishment, absent policies to make food more affordable.

Prioritizing sustainable agriculture. Devoting more capital to food production would likely result in more soil erosion and pollution, unless steps were taken to reform agricultural practices.

Increasing the lifetime of industrial capital. The authors note: “The drains on industrial capital for higher services and food production and for resource recycling and pollution control under the above six conditions would lead to a low final level of industrial capital stock. To counteract this effect, the average lifetime of industrial capital is increased, implying better design for durability and repair and less discarding because of obsolescence. This policy also tends to reduce resource depletion and pollution.”

These have been the key policy recommendations issued by environmental organizations ever since—in addition to ecosystem protection and restoration, and energy source switching.

However, timing is of the essence. In the final 1972 Limits to Growth scenario, stabilizing policies are introduced later (in the year 2000) rather than sooner (1975); in that scenario, “population and industrial capital reach levels high enough to create food and resource shortages before the year 2100.” Sadly, as of 2022, those stabilizing policies still have not been fully implemented.

Today, policy options are highly constrained: in order to avert peaks and substantial declines in food and industrial production later this century, so much would have to be done that the policies themselves would be extremely disruptive to society. Over the past decade, the world’s efforts to avert environmental harms have become focused primarily on climate change; resource depletion and overpopulation are now largely ignored. And the fight against global warming is not going well.

Still, while policy makers have failed to prevent sustainability crises that have already begun and will almost certainly worsen throughout the remainder of the century, further inaction just ensures the worst possible outcome. We can do things to minimize casualties and leave the survivors with more options. As Dennis Meadows put it to me in a recent email:

“The challenge in any retrospective on The Limits to Growth is to make it more than just ‘I told you so, and now comes doom.’ The last time greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere were this high, the sea was 20 meters higher. There were no Homo sapiens around then, and I fear there won’t be any around a few centuries from now. But in the meantime, let’s try to spur constructive action. For me that means exploring the options and means for a peaceful and equitable decline and strengthening the resilience of all our critical systems.”

For suggestions that might lead us toward a peaceful and equitable decline, see Howard and Elisabeth Odum’s A Prosperous Way Down (2001), my own book The End of Growth (2011), and innumerable articles published at www.resilience.org. In the near-absence of government efforts to implement stabilizing policies, organizations such as the Transition Network are fostering people-powered sustainability change at the community scale. Meanwhile, governments and the mainstream think tanks that advise them are beginning to invest in resilience-building strategies, since it is clear even to them that hard times are coming."

Brace for impact!

H/T Richard Heinberg for the timely article!