9 March 2026 - One week after US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Wise Response Society warns that the situation has deteriorated significantly since its initial alert on 3rd March - and that the New Zealand government’s silence on contingency planning is becoming increasingly dangerous.
If the New Zealand government has a plan for rationing fuel, it has not discussed it with the public. It is the position of the Wise Response Society that it must do so immediately.
In the nine days since US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the crisis has moved well beyond a shipping disruption. Force Majeure declarations are now cascading through the entire supply chain that New Zealand depends on for 100% of its refined fuel, from Gulf producers through to the South Korean and Singaporean refineries that supply our petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. When a supplier declares Force Majeure, it is legally stating that it cannot fulfil its contracts. New Zealand may have only two to three weeks of physical fuel in the country, the pipeline of future deliveries is being disrupted by Force Majeure, and the bulk of our stated 90-day reserves consist of untested paper agreements with overseas governments.
Yet the New Zealand government has offered no public assessment of fuel supply risk, no activation of the National Fuel Security Plan, and no indication that contingency planning is underway. Countries across the region, from Thailand to Myanmar to India, have already taken concrete action. New Zealand has said nothing.
Wise Response Chair Nathan Surendran says it is clear the conflict is not going to be the “four-week process” projected by President Trump.
“This puts New Zealand in a critical situation that needs planning, public awareness, and action readiness. New Zealand is at the end of a very long supply chain and is more vulnerable than most to supply shocks of this kind. All of our exporting and importing relies on timely supply of fuel, and this is about to be seriously disrupted. All of our productive sector also relies on timely fuel supply, so this too will be heavily disrupted. The government needs to be getting its rationing priorities in place now so that people and businesses can plan for themselves.”
For the full press release, refer to the original article here:
Thank you Nathan for your clear and compelling commentary. I've only just discovered your work, and I expect many more kiwis will over the coming days and weeks as they look for information on the present energy crisis. Whether it's a true SHTF moment or just another jolt that gets us thinking more clearly about the inevitable changes to come in energy use and access, I'm glad to have found a sane voice narrating the chaos as it unfolds.
I was intrigued by the notion of a tradable energy quota, which I was not familiar with. It seems very sensible at a policy level, but at a cultural level it will surely prove confronting - for our culture today at least. Until there's been a broader shift in cultural norms and related economic expectations, I think TEQs will be a very hard sell.
After a little reading on the topic of TEQs I discovered their association with the work of David Fleming, who's lean logic I'd come across a while back at a time when I'd started really fretting about the future. This link to Fleming was helpful context for me. I think policy needs to be placed within a broader philosophical (ideological?) arch to gain real traction. So maybe situating TEQs within a suite of sensible policy options that would help cushion energy declines? Hard to capture in a press realise of course.
Good luck to you, and thank you for your efforts on all this
Appreciate the update. The government paralysis is disconcerting.