Please write direct to this list expressing support for this request:
simon.watts@parliament.govt.nz,
shane.jones@parliament.govt.nz,
penny.simmonds@parliament.govt.nz,
christopher.luxon@parliament.govt.nz,
winston.peters@parliament.govt.nz,
judith.collins@parliament.govt.nz,
megan.woods@parliament.govt.nz,
rachel.brooking@parliament.govt.nz,
julie-anne.genter@parliament.govt.nz,
chloe.swarbrick@parliament.govt.nz,
steve.abel@parliament.govt.nz,
simon.court@parliament.govt.nz,
mark.patterson@parliament.govt.nz,
joseph.mooney@parliament.govt.nz,
miles.anderson@parliament.govt.nz,
todd.muller@parliament.govt.nz,
matt.doocey@parliament.govt.nz,
kieran.mcanulty@parliament.govt.nz,
liam.rutherford@parliament.govt.nz,
generalmanager@opportunity.org.nz
Dear Ministers,
URGENT REQUEST: We must signal and implement rationing measures as quickly as possible.
This is not a 1970s-scale event. Rapidan Energy has called the Strait of Hormuz closure the largest oil supply disruption in history, more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956. The 1973 Arab oil embargo removed roughly 7-9% of global supply from the market. That was enough to quadruple oil prices, trigger a global recession, and reshape geopolitics for a decade. What we are looking at now is around 20% of global supply disrupted, 2-3 times the 1973 shock. And critically, the countries holding the overwhelming majority of the world’s spare production capacity, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are themselves trapped behind the closure. The cushion is inside the bottleneck.
If the South Koreans implement the refined fuels export ban they are openly discussing, Singapore may need to take similar measures. We would then face a vastly reduced ability to import additional fuel in the coming months.
New Zealand currently has around 18 to 20 days of fuel in country. It is imperative that we take precautionary measures to ration this immediately. Adapt Research last year published a comprehensive study on the potential for such measures to stretch a finite supply. (See also Beyond 90 Days: A Critical Analysis of NZ’s 2025 Fuel Security Study - Adapt Research Ltd)
A report for the Government last year on fuel security found a 50% reduction in fuel imports for an extended period was likely to cut GDP by as much as 1%. As I argue in my white paper, drawing on Steve Keen’s work, in a realistic energy-literate economic analysis where you get the exponents for energy correct in the Cobb-Douglas production function, a 50% drop in energy inputs will produce something closer to a 50% drop in GDP. Even this sells short the severity of what we face. A drop of that magnitude has cascading second-order effects as businesses already stressed by years of economic stagnation are pushed to the brink and beyond.
I wrote to Minister Jones and the MBIE Oil Security team directly yesterday. Given the developments from South Korea, I am again escalating this to this group. Again: We must signal and implement rationing measures as quickly as possible.
Sincerely,
Nathan Surendran
Chairperson, Wise Response Society
Director, Schema Consulting Ltd
021 209 6286 | nathan@schema.nz
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Nathan Surendran <nathan@schema.nz>
Date: Tue, 10 Mar 2026, 16:51
Subject: Fwd: NZ fuel supply - diversion risk and rationing briefing offer
To: <oilsecurity@mbie.govt.nz>
Cc: <nic.blakeley@mbie.govt.nz>, <paul.stocks@mbie.govt.nz>, <melanie.porter@mbie.govt.nz>, <lesley.mcconnell@mbie.govt.nz>, <robert.pigou@mbie.govt.nz>
Dear Oil Security Team,
I am forwarding the below correspondence sent today to the Minister for Resources, Hon Shane Jones, regarding the current Strait of Hormuz disruption and its implications for New Zealand’s fuel supply.
I am writing to you directly because one specific risk may not yet be visible in MBIE’s monitoring: the Force Majeure declarations now cascading across Gulf and Asian suppliers do not just cause delays, they void contracts. Fuel currently on the water and nominally destined for New Zealand can legally be diverted to higher-paying buyers. There are reports this is already happening:
Bloomberg (March 9) - “Fuel Cargoes Divert to Asia as Middle East War Disrupts Supply Routes” - Five diesel/jet fuel tankers U-turn from west to East Asia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/fuel-cargoes-redirecting-to-asia-with-supply-crunch-worsening
Reuters via Baird Maritime (March 6) - “Two Reliance fuel tankers diverted from Europe to Asia as margins rise” - Names four specific vessels (Advantage Life, Navig8 Honor, Elandra Tern, Burri) carrying diesel and jet fuel. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/tankers/two-reliance-fuel-tankers-diverted-from-europe-to-asia-as-margins-rise
This means our tier 2 floating reserve may be less secure than stockholding reports suggest.
Australian fuel wholesalers are already rationing supply to retailers despite holding 36 days of reserves and operating two domestic refineries. New Zealand has neither.
I would appreciate confirmation of two things:
Whether MBIE is specifically monitoring the diversion risk to in-transit cargoes under the current Force Majeure conditions, and
Whether activation of the response framework under the Fuel Security Plan is being considered.
I have been tracking this situation closely and am available for a chat with your team at short notice if that would be useful.
Ngā mihi,
Nathan Surendran
Chairperson, Wise Response Society
Director, Schema Consulting Ltd
021 209 6286 | nathan@schema.nz
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Nathan Surendran <nathan@schema.nz>
Date: Tue, 10 Mar 2026 at 15:26
Subject: NZ fuel supply - diversion risk and rationing briefing offer
To: <shane.jones@parliament.govt.nz>
Dear Minister Jones,
You’ll have seen Wise Response got RNZ coverage today: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/589111/advocacy-group-calls-for-national-fuel-security-plan-to-be-activated-in-face-of-global-shortages
One specific point I’d like Shane to have in front of him, further to my press release which I email yesterday (
):
The Force Majeure declarations cascading across Gulf and Asian suppliers don’t just mean delays. They void contracts. That means fuel currently on the water headed for NZ can legally be diverted to nations willing to pay more.
Our tier 2 floating reserve isn’t as secure as it looks, and its diversion would leave us with only the fuel we currently have on the ground.
Australian fuel wholesalers are already rationing supplies to retailers despite Australia holding 36 days of reserves and two domestic refineries - New Zealand has neither.
The precautionary response is to signal rationing now, before shortages force it.
I am available to brief Shane or his team at short notice.
Ngā mihi,
Nathan Surendran
Chairperson, Wise Response Society
Director, Schema Consulting Ltd
021 209 6286 | nathan@schema.nz
On Mon, 9 Mar 2026 at 14:24, Nathan Surendran <nathan@schema.nz> wrote:
Dear Ministers,
On 4 March I wrote to you with a warning about New Zealand’s fuel supply exposure following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. I have not received a response. In the five days since, the situation has worsened considerably.
Oil prices have surged past US$109 per barrel overnight, the biggest weekly gain in futures trading history. Force Majeure declarations, the legal mechanism by which suppliers declare they cannot fulfil contracts, are now cascading through the supply chain New Zealand depends on for 100% of its refined fuel.
Confirmed Force Majeure declarations this week include QatarEnergy (world’s largest LNG exporter), Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (oil and refinery products), Yeochun NCC in South Korea (our largest fuel supply country), and PCS in Singapore (our second-largest). China, Thailand, India, and Japan have all taken concrete action. Australia’s fuel wholesalers are already rationing supply.
New Zealand has made no public statement.
I want to draw your attention to one specific point. New Zealand’s stated 90-day fuel reserve is not what it appears. Only 2-3 weeks of fuel is physically in tanks in the country. The rest is made up of fuel in transit and “oil tickets,” paper agreements with the US, UK, and Japan that have never been tested. MBIE’s own 2022 consultation paper acknowledged there is “no formula describing the likelihood” that our treaty partners would be unable to assist in an emergency.
The Force Majeure declarations now hitting our suppliers in South Korea and Singapore mean the contracted cargoes that are supposed to replenish our physical stocks may not arrive. This is not a theoretical concern. It is happening now.
I have three specific questions:
1. Has the government assessed whether any of NZ’s fuel purchase contracts have been affected by the Force Majeure declarations cascading through our supply chain?
2. Has the Fuel Sector Coordinating Entity been activated?
3. At what point will the government inform the public about our fuel supply position?
The Wise Response Society’s updated press release and evidence sheet, published today, documents the full Force Majeure cascade and the contrast between New Zealand’s silence and the actions of comparable countries:
I am available to brief you or your staff at any time.
Sincerely,
Nathan Surendran
Chairperson, Wise Response Society
Director, Schema Consulting Ltd
021 209 6286 | nathan@schema.nzOn Wed, 4 Mar 2026 at 14:21, Nathan Surendran <nathan@schema.nz> wrote:
Dear Ministers,
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. CMA CGM has suspended Suez Canal transits. Maritime insurers have cancelled war risk cover across the Persian Gulf. Supertanker rates hit an all-time record yesterday.
New Zealand imports 100% of its refined fuel. Roughly 81% of our refined fuel imports come from refineries in South Korea and Singapore, both of which are heavily dependent on Middle Eastern crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz. We hold 21 days of diesel.
This is no longer a hypothetical risk.
Yesterday, the Wise Response Society - which I chair - issued a press release calling on the government to activate the National Fuel Plan, be transparent about our exposure, and investigate equitable rationing frameworks before shortages force improvised responses.
Press release and evidence sheet:
I have also released a whitepaper examining New Zealand’s structural energy vulnerability — the deeper pattern that makes crises like this predictable:
https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transitionThree reports from the last 24 hours support the urgency of this request:
CNBC: VLCC supertanker rates hit all-time highs; insurers scrapping war risk cover - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/middle-east-crisis-iran-us-shipping-oil-tankers-strait-of-hormuz.html
Al Jazeera: IRGC declares strait “closed”; five tankers damaged, 150 ships stranded - https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/3/shutdown-of-hormuz-strait-raises-fears-of-soaring-oil-prices
Washington Post: Shipping through Hormuz effectively halted - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/03/02/oil-prices-strait-hormuz/
I am available to brief you or your staff on New Zealand’s fuel supply exposure at short notice.
Sincerely,
Nathan Surendran
Chairperson, Wise Response Society
Director, Schema Consulting Ltd
021 209 6286 | nathan@schema.nz
Your post is very concerning but just as concerning is this government doesn't have a good record of listening to expert advice, science or evidence based research.
Email sent Nathan… great work! It’s challenging watching this global train-wreck unfolding and the seeming lack of a systems synthesis of the near term implications for us here in NZ from our so called leaders?!?!