In the face of ideological paralysis from central government regarding positive actions to the fuel crisis. I have been writing and now presenting on positive actions that can be taken at the local and community level.
Over the past two weeks I gave two talks on the same underlying problem from different angles. Both recordings are now public.
WAO Green Drinks, Wānaka - 23 April
The WAO Aotearoa team hosted me for the first of their Resilience Response Green Drinks sessions. Over 80 people registered. The brief was practical: what’s coming, what it means for households and businesses, what communities can actually do.
I covered the fuel supply picture, the council deputation pathway, and the community-scale tools. Mutual aid, food security, demand reduction. The framing WAO have built around this is the right one: resilience starts with understanding, grows through community.
Recording and slides: Wao Green Drinks: Resilience Response
Slides direct: Google Slides
Fuel, Physics, and What Comes Next - OCD Webinar, 29 April
Jack Santa Barbara hosted this one for Our Climate Declaration, co-sponsored by Degrowth Aotearoa, Wise Response, Engineers for Social Responsibility, and the Nelson Tasman Climate Forum.
This was a similar talk with the following structure:
The good news on climate nobody wants to hear: NZ will probably hit its targets, not because of policy, because the economy is being forced into contraction. Involuntary contraction, not planned degrowth.
The energy supply picture: 100% imported refined fuel, 81% from Middle East crude, ~18 days onshore, no volumetric allocation in the government plan.
The default tsunami: insolvencies at a 15-year high before Hormuz, mortgage arrears at an 8-year peak, IRD tax debt past $9 billion. The financial wave likely hits before the physical shortage does.
The biophysical economics underneath: EROI decline, thermodynamic limits on transition, why the seamless-transition narrative is breaking. Hall, Keen, Smil, Hagens, Garrett, Delannoy.
What we can do: the Wise Response open letter with Mike Hodgkinson, Tradable Energy Quotas, “When the Trucks Stop”, “No Fuel, Still Fed”, council deputations, demand reduction.
Jack asked during the webinar for a single source on the bigger oil supply picture. I pointed people to Chris Martenson’s recent video, also embedded in their post.
Recording and full outline: Fuel, Physics, and What Comes Next
Government is not going to lead the response. The work that happens, happens at council, community, and household scale, or it doesn’t happen at all. I hope the ideas presented here are a catalyst to action.
Please also take time to review my previous posts presenting an abridged version of this information to local government: Invercargill City Council (Urban Territorial Authority), and Southland District Council (Rural Territorial Authority). Please do likewise with your local councils, even if it’s just sending them the links above with an introductory letter!
References cited in both talks
White paper, “The Limits to the Energy Transition”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transition
“Hoping the Ship Arrives Isn’t a Strategy”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/hoping-the-ship-arrives-isnt-a-strategy
“Every Country in Our Supply Chain Has Declared an Emergency”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/every-country-in-our-supply-chain
“No Fuel, Still Fed”: https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/no-fuel-still-fed
“When the Trucks Stop” mutual aid guide:
“Fair Shares: Why Tradable Energy Quotas Are NZ’s Best Option”:
WAO Resilience Response: https://www.wao.co.nz/resilience-response
Wise Response Society: https://wiseresponse.org.nz/
Our Climate Declaration:
Nathan Surendran is Principal Consultant at Schema Consulting Ltd and Chairperson of the Wise Response Society. His white paper “The Limits to the Energy Transition: What Physics Means for New Zealand’s Economy” is available here.
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Nathan, this is a masterful audit of the Involuntary Contraction we are now entering. In the Sovereign Gap, we track the delta between the Signal (government policy) and the Substance (physics), and your recordings confirm that the two are in terminal divergence.
1. The Signal of the Default Tsunami
Your observation that the Financial Wave hits before the physical shortage is the critical lead indicator. With IRD tax debt exceeding $9 billion and mortgage arrears at an 8-year peak, we are witnessing the Mechanical Liquidation of the middle class before a single tanker even misses its window. The Software of our economy is crashing because it can no longer service the Metabolic Debt of a high-energy lifestyle on a low-energy budget.
2. The Substance of the 18-Day Clock
The reality of 100% imported refined fuel and a ~18-to-27-day onshore inventory is the Diesel Cliff we’ve been warning about. The fact that the government’s plan has no Volumetric Allocation means they have no plan to manage the Bones of the country, It appeared they only have a plan to manage the illusion until the tanks run dry.
3. The Council Deputation:
You are correct: the response happens at the council, community, and household scale, or it doesn't happen at all. The council deputation pathway is the only way to ensure that local the tractors, the food trucks, and the emergency services—stays fed when the national Signal goes dark.
If the trucks stop, we all stop
Brilliant. It's utterly bizarre that neither mainstream politicians nor the media can bring themselves to face our new reality - and thus enable us to plan for it rationally.
What concerns me most, now, is our psycho-social trajectory as involuntary degrowth takes hold. To the corporate mind, degrowth is unspeakable blasphemy. And corporates have massive influence on politics and public discourse.
As jobs dry up and pay-packets fall behind inflation, more and more people are doing it hard. Unless people are made aware of WHY this is happening, far too many will fall for the false narratives sold by bullyboy populists in the Trump/Farage/Shane Jones mould, and popularised by talkback radio shock-jocks.
This could so easily turn resentment into anger. And that in turn will likely spill over into bitter division and open conflict, or fascism. Or all of the above.
The environmental/social justice polycrisis we now face will not be solved by talking to 'environmentalists' or those who already aware. We desperately need to reach out and persuade a clear majority of voters that our economic survival depends on accepting the need to cut emissions, reduce our environmental footprint, and accept a simpler lifestyle. Our arguments need to be economic. We need to convince the unconvinced about the economic impact of overshoot and what needs to be done about it.